Tomorrow, Canada Votes—And American Business May Never Be the Same

Tomorrow, Canada will go to the polls — and the results could send shockwaves through Donald Trump’s America faster than most CEOs and investors are ready for.

While Americans are glued to their own chaotic election cycle, they’re overlooking a critical fact: the Canadian election could reshape the North American economy—for better or worse—almost immediately.

Whether it’s trade policy, tariffs, energy infrastructure, or cross-border manufacturing, American businesses are about to feel the ripple effects. And if you think this is just “Canadian business,” you’re missing the bigger picture. This election could tilt entire industries.

At the center of it all are two starkly different visions for Canada’s future—and by extension, for its relationship with Trump’s America.

If Pierre Poilievre wins, he will bring a nationalist, pro-business, anti-regulation platform that mirrors Trump’s America First energy. Axios reports that Poilievre has promised to dismantle carbon taxes, slash corporate red tape, and reinvigorate energy projects that the Trudeau government let die.

For American businesses, a Poilievre win is a green light: easier access to Canadian resources, faster approvals for cross-border energy deals, and a dramatic rollback of the ESG-driven policies that have slowed bilateral trade.

If Mark Carney or Chrystia Freeland wins, it’s an entirely different story. Both are deeply tied to the globalist economic frameworks that Trump fought tooth and nail during his first term. As Axios notes, Carney has openly criticized Trump’s economic policies and would likely steer Canada toward more European-style regulatory alignments—carbon tariffs, digital service taxes, and environmental restrictions that American businesses loathe.

Freeland, while more pragmatic, still leans heavily into the Trudeau-era policy playbook. Don’t expect her to embrace Trump’s energy ambitions or deregulatory mindset either.

The stakes for American industries couldn’t be clearer.

Here’s What’s on the Line Tomorrow:

1. Manufacturing and Supply Chains

If Poilievre wins, expect a revival of “Buy North American” manufacturing momentum. U.S. manufacturers could see new incentives to integrate Canadian supply chains without the looming threat of new environmental taxes or ESG reporting hurdles.

If Carney or Freeland takes power, brace for a return to friction: new regulatory barriers, carbon tariffs on imports, and slower cross-border logistics.

Winners with Poilievre: U.S. automotive, heavy equipment, steel, aluminum

Winners with Carney/Freeland: European exporters, regulatory consulting firms

2. Energy and Resources

Trump has made clear he wants North American energy dominance. Canada’s oil sands, rare earth minerals, and natural gas fields are essential to that plan.

Poilievre’s platform is unapologetically pro-drilling, pro-pipeline, and pro-mining. A Trump-Poilievre tandem would fast-track projects like Keystone XL-style pipelines and new mining operations for EV metals, lithium, and critical minerals.

Under Carney or Freeland? Expect energy projects to stall or die under layers of environmental reviews, social impact assessments, and climate policy roadblocks.

Winners with Poilievre: U.S. oilfield services, energy exporters, mining companies

Winners with Carney/Freeland: Green tech firms, ESG investors

3. Agriculture and Food Exports

U.S. farmers have long depended on open Canadian markets. Tariffs on agricultural products—imposed during Trump’s first term as retaliation for steel and aluminum duties—nearly crippled parts of the U.S. farm economy.

Poilievre has promised a pro-trade stance with American agriculture and a rollback of Trudeau-era protectionism.

Carney or Freeland would likely tighten food and agri-import standards under new climate and sustainability rules, complicating U.S. farm exports once again.

Winners with Poilievre: U.S. soybean, wheat, pork, and beef exporters

Winners with Carney/Freeland: Domestic Canadian producers, European food exporters

4. Technology and Intellectual Property

The North American tech sector thrives on fast-moving innovation. Trump and Poilievre both advocate reducing regulatory friction for cross-border data, cloud services, and AI development.

Carney and Freeland, however, favor heavier regulation of tech giants and more government oversight on data flows and AI ethics — policies aligned with Brussels, not Washington.

Winners with Poilievre: U.S. cloud computing, AI startups, cross-border fintech

Winners with Carney/Freeland: Regulatory tech firms, legal compliance consultancies

This Isn’t Theoretical—It Starts 

Immediately After the Votes Are Counted

Business leaders don’t have the luxury of waiting six months to react. As we saw during Trump’s first term, tariff regimes can shift overnight based on political winds.

Politico’s recent analysis shows that Canadian favorability toward the U.S. is already polarized. A Poilievre government would snap relations back toward tighter economic alignment. Carney or Freeland would likely drift Canada closer to Europe—and further from Trump’s America.

That means contracts, supply chain strategies, and investment plans being drafted today need contingency pathways for two entirely different future realities—depending on who takes office tomorrow.

A Moment in History—And a Warning

In the 1980s, Reagan and Mulroney built an economic bond that created the modern U.S.-Canada trade alliance. It fueled decades of prosperity across both borders.

But in the 1970s, when U.S. and Canadian leadership drifted apart ideologically, tariffs, nationalization efforts, and protectionist measures shattered cross-border commerce for years.

Tomorrow’s election is a fork in the road.

Will North America double down on a high-growth, pro-business trade zone?

Or will it fracture into a patchwork of climate policies, tariffs, and regulatory choke points?

Trump’s America is poised to dominate global trade if it can first secure its neighborhood. Canada’s vote tomorrow could either hand him the partnership he needs—or set the stage for four years of bitter, bruising economic battles.

If you’re running a business, investing in supply chains, or planning your next cross-border expansion, one thing is clear: ignore Canada’s election at your own risk.

Because by tomorrow night, the future of North American commerce could look very, very different.