Asking the Odds Is the Hard Question That Separates Founders Who Raise From Those Who Chase
Founders often enter a VC meeting with polished slide decks, revenue projections, market size claims and product demos. Few ask what may be the most revealing question: What are the odds you will invest in this round? That question forces clarity on both sides. It reveals whether you are pitching hope or possibility.
Recent deals show that clarity matters more than you think. Investors are increasingly backing companies that show transparency, conviction, and measurable paths forward. Those traits correlate strongly with successful funding rounds.
Here is what the data says. Here are examples of companies that succeeded recently. Here is how the “ask the odds” style plays into raising capital. And here is how founders and investors can use it to improve outcomes.
Recent Success Stories
Groq
In September 2025 Groq raised $750 million in a round that valued the company at $6.9 billion. The company focuses on optimizing AI inference with high‑speed, low‑cost solutions. Lead investors included Disruptive, Blackrock, Neuberger Berman and others. Founders pitched a clear path toward low latency for inference workloads and showed existing deployment partners or pilot customers. That clarity helped them justify the high valuation.
Enfabrica
Enfabrica raised about $260 million in a recent venture round. The startup builds technology to network tens of thousands of AI chips so they operate as a unified system. Nvidia reportedly paid more than $900 million to hire their CEO and license some of their technology. Founders of Enfabrica laid out not just the vision but benchmarks and timelines with measurable metrics for performance and scale. Investors responded.
Figure
The autonomous robotics company Figure saw its valuation rise sharply after its most recent funding round. It raised new capital while showing revenue multiples and proof of deployment in real environments. Investors were impressed by its combined hardware/software stack and its ability to deliver robots for logistics and manufacturing in the short term.
These companies share more than product or vision. They presented odds, commitments, and risks up front.
Founders Who Ask Gain Real Advantages
When a founder asks a VC “What are the odds you will invest?” early in the conversation, they gain these advantages:
1. Faster Filtering
If a VC says 10 percent odds you invest, you know to reshape your deck, find deeper metrics, or move to a better lead. If odds are 80 percent, you push toward detail, due diligence, then closure.
2. Improved Terms
Knowing an investor is leaning in gives you leverage. You can ask for better valuation, better rights, better board structure. Founders who assume they must accept term sheets at face value lose potential upside.
3. Clarity of Priorities
You learn what concerns investors most: is it product market fit, hardware supply chain risk, cost of goods sold, regulatory compliance or sales pipeline? Once you know what the investor cares about, you tailor your pitch to those items.
4. Stronger Feedback Loop
If odds are low, you can ask what would move them higher. Maybe it is more proof of manufacturing readiness. Maybe it is a shift in team composition. That guide helps you improve for the next round.
For Investors, Saying Odds Encourages Quality
When investors answer that question honestly they benefit:
They build reputation for transparency.
They avoid wasting time on deals that lack alignment.
They attract founders who are serious and prepared.
Many VCs prefer not to give a number because they think it commits them. But not doing so often wastes more time.
How to Use Real Data to Support the Ask
Founders should prepare data that makes the odds question reasonable. Examples:
Show recent capital raises in your space. Hardware startups like Groq or Enfabrica show there is capital flowing into infrastructure and AI compute.
Demonstrate unit economics, yield of production, cost of materials, lead time for manufacturing.
Show any government or defense contracts or certifications. Those reduce perceived risk for investors.
For instance, the Texas Semiconductor Innovation Fund recently awarded $250 million to Samsung’s chip plant in Taylor, Texas. That plant is expected to employ thousands and strengthen the U.S. onshore chip supply chain. That data benefits any startup that sources AI hardware in that ecosystem.
The Odds Over the Next Four Years
The AI boom is accelerating. U.S. startup funding in first half of 2025 rose by tens of billions driven by AI infrastructure and hardware adjacent sectors. Many new companies in space, defense, robotics and chip supply have raised more than $100 million rounds. Examples include Varda (space manufacturing) and Apex (satellite buses) having raised Series C or Series B rounds recently. These rounds depended on hardware readiness and manufacturing roadmaps.
Investors betting on infrastructure rather than purely software will capture outsized returns especially if policy and public spending continue to favor U.S.-based manufacturing, dual‑use technology, defense contracts and export stable supply chains.
Final Word
Founders should not hesitate to ask “What are the odds you will invest?” It forces clarity, accelerates decision‑making, sharpens pitch, attracts stronger leads and improves leverage. Investors should welcome this question because it filters commitment, improves alignment and raises the quality of deals.
Real data shows hardware and infrastructure companies are raising large rounds when they show manufacturing readiness, proof of product, clear supply chain and measurable deployment criteria. Those founders who prepare will be rewarded. Those who only hope will find themselves chasing.
It is time for both sides to bring the odds into the room. That is how many of the next success stories will be born.
